As COP30 draws to a close, we reflect on what was both an ambitious and challenging summit. Hosted in Belém, Brazil, the event promised to accelerate global climate action through scaled-up finance and a roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out. While important progress was made, the final outcome, branded the “Global Mutirão” (Portuguese for “collective effort”), fell short of some expectations, underscoring the difficulty of forging consensus in today’s fractured geopolitical landscape.
COP30
Mixed expectations?
In the lead up to COP30, the urgency for action was undeniable. Scientists warned that without rapid emissions cuts, global temperatures could rise by 2.5°C by mid-century, imperilling ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest. Recent climate disasters and record-breaking temperatures reinforced the need for decisive outcomes.
Adding to the sense of urgency is a striking absence of global leadership. The US, historically the largest carbon emitter, failed to send any senior delegation to COP30. Under President Donald Trump, the US has actively dismantled climate policies and is, once again, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. This absence of a major player injected uncertainty into negotiations and placed additional pressure on other influential actors, notably the EU and UK, to step up. Similarly, China’s President Xi and India’s Prime Minister Modi chose not to attend in person, instead delegating responsibilities to ministers, a stark contrast to the dozens of leaders from Europe, Africa and Latin America who were present in Belém.
Against this backdrop, Brazil’s presidency injected optimism. President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva declared COP30 “the COP of truth”: he opened the summit calling for global roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and halt deforestation. Hosting the summit in Belém was a deliberate choice to spotlight the Amazon and Indigenous voices, and those voices were heard. Civil society protests demanding stronger protections for the rainforest marked a vibrant presence, even as logistical challenges highlighted the complexity of hosting in such a remote location.
Fossil fuels: unfinished business
Momentum on fossil fuels has been building in recent years, but progress remains incremental. COP26 in Glasgow marked the first global pledge to “phase down” unabated coal, while COP27 reaffirmed that language without extending it to oil and gas. COP28 in Dubai edged forward with a compromise to “transition away” from fossil fuels, yet COP29 in Baku shifted focus to finance, leaving the issue unresolved. Building on these foundations, COP30 was hoping to deliver a breakthrough: a clear commitment to phase out all fossil fuels.
Instead, the issue dominated headlines without delivering a decisive outcome. The EU and its allies (including the UK and Colombia) pushed for strong language on phasing out coal, oil, and gas. In contrast, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and India led resistance, forming what negotiators called an “axis of obstruction”. Many developing and middle-income countries also resisted, citing economic dependence on hydrocarbons.
The outcome? No binding pledge to phase out fossil fuels. Instead, the final text reiterated earlier commitments to “transition away” by 2050. A proposed global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels was dropped from the official agreement, though Brazil signalled its intent to continue leveraging its role as host to keep the issue alive before the baton is handed to Turkey for COP31. UN Climate Chief, Simon Stiell, acknowledged the shortfall but framed the outcome as a starting point for building a binding global plan.
Finance: from billions to trillions
Finance has long been the fault line in climate negotiations. Developing nations argue they cannot cut emissions or adapt to worsening climate impacts without substantial support from wealthier countries, those historically responsible for most man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Previous COPs promised billions, but delivery has lagged, and trust has eroded. Heading into COP30, the question was whether finance could scale to match the ambition of global climate goals.
This year, finance delivered more than expected. The final agreement includes:
- A tripling of climate finance by 2035.
- A doubling of finance specifically for climate adaptation by 2025 and tripling by 2035.
- Operational launch of the Loss and Damage Fund, agreed at COP28 but now ready to disburse aid.
The new “Baku-to-Belém” roadmap aims to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, a dramatic leap from COP29’s $300 billion pledge. Still, disputes over who pays and how much, remain unresolved, with India and African nations criticising inadequate finance and China opposing the EU’s carbon border tax.
AI on the climate stage
A striking new theme at COP30 was the role of artificial intelligence (AI). For the first time, the summit integrated AI into its core agenda, exploring its potential to accelerate climate action, from smarter grids and emissions tracking to climate-resilient infrastructure. Yet, concerns over AI’s energy footprint and misinformation risks prompted calls for strong governance and clean power supply. The message was clear: AI can be a powerful ally, but only if managed responsibly.
‘Result’? - Cooperation amid challenges
The summit closed with the Global Mutirão package, a hard-won consensus bundling emissions, finance and adaptation into one text. Negotiations ran into overtime, even pausing for a venue fire, but ultimately, 194 countries stood together. UN Secretary-General António Guterres hailed the outcome as proof that “nations can still unite”, even if ambition fell short.
COP30 did not deliver everything hoped for, but it kept the process alive and injected fresh momentum into finance and implementation. In today’s fractured geopolitical climate, that is no small feat.
Implications for sustainable investment
For investors, COP30 reinforces the ongoing transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy. The summit’s declaration and substantial finance commitments support growth in sectors such as renewable energy, electric transport, sustainable infrastructure and resource efficiency.
Our Sustainable Opportunities Balanced and Growth Funds are positioned to benefit from these developments by investing in companies that provide a range of sustainability solutions, particularly those aligned with our Clean Energy and Resource Efficiency investment themes. While COP30 did not resolve every challenge, the outcomes underscore the importance of aligning portfolios with the sustainability transition, which continues to present opportunities for these environmental and social investment themes to deliver long-term value.
Approver: Quilter Cheviot Limited. 25 November 2025